Where are we now?
Key Points
- US equity markets hit new all time highs
- Asian markets surge
- Economic data showing robust growth in many countries
- Global cash levels still very high
- Commodity prices may be readying for a surge in 2015
- Chinese steel production still over 820mtpa and 820mt YTD (+5.3%)
- Iron ore imports into China up 15% YTD and likely to exceed 900mt
- US$ still strong for now
- Japanese yen breaking down
- Global bonds have spike high then sell-off
- Gold price hammered into an important low?
- All these indicators say BUY RESOURCES STOCKS!!
Corporate earnings for many companies in the US have been good and FactSheet reports for Sept Qtr 2014 that, for the 362 companies it follows, 78% have had earnings above the mean estimate and 59% had sales above the mean estimate.
EPS figures for these companies are 7.3% higher than a year ago and about 28% higher than in 2007 pre GFC.
The good US economic growth data have been above expectations and many other countries are also providing this better data.
More recent data and IMF forecasts* for 2015 paint a positive picture although much of the recent data in UK and Europe are better than IMF forecasts* and its very recent outlook downgrades.
| % GDP growth |
2014 |
2015* |
| US |
3.2 |
3.1 |
| Japan |
0.9 |
0.8 |
| UK |
3.2 |
2.7 |
| Germany |
1.4 |
1.5 |
| China |
7.4 |
7.1 |
| Taiwan |
3.9 |
4.0 |
| India |
5.6 |
6.4 |
| Region | August 2012 | August 2013 |
+% |
Now?? |
| Nth America | 1,850 | 2,462 |
33% |
3,000?? |
| Asia Pacific | 1,100 | 1,790 |
63% |
2,000?? |
| Europe | 837 | 1,033 |
23% |
1,100?? |
| UK | 147 | 186 |
27% |
200?? |
| Latin America | 71 | 97 |
37% |
110?? |
| Other | 39 | 55 |
41% |
60?? |
| Total | 4,044 | 5,623 |
39% |
6,470??? |
| 000t |
1-Jan-13 |
1-Jul-13 |
1-Jan-14 |
1-Jul-14 |
current |
Jul-13 |
Jul-14 |
| Copper |
320 |
665 |
366 |
155 |
162 |
-75.6% |
4.8% |
| Zinc |
1220 |
1061 |
933 |
668 |
698 |
-34.2% |
4.5% |
| Lead |
320 |
198 |
214 |
194 |
227 |
14.4% |
16.9% |
| Tin |
12 |
14 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
-25.8% |
-8.8% |
| Nickel |
139 |
187 |
262 |
305 |
385 |
106.0% |
26.4% |
| Aluminium |
5210 |
5435 |
5458 |
5046 |
4429 |
-18.5% |
-12.2% |
Commodity outlook encouraging
Commodities have been weak recently with iron ore, oil and gold as good examples. But it is notable that many commodities and other markets (especially the A$) have had declines but are bouncing off on a long term support line. Many agricultural commodities have had typical selling exhaustion patterns (as if from liquidation of long positions) and fit along these support lines. Should these commodities bounce then the uptrend can be quickly re-instated.
Much has been made of the influence of a strong US$ but individual supply demand patterns are more important than just a currency adjustment.
Oil and natural gas need to be closely followed because a strong US$ won't have much of an impact on these prices.The Islamic militants in Iraq may affect oil and gas fields and also may try to intercept tankers in the major choke points such as Straits of Hormuz to give some supply problems for the West. Also US natural gas inventories are relatively low ahead of what could be another cold winter.
Steel in China
Consumption of steel is forecast by the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute in Beijing (Sept 2014) to peak in 2017 at 763mt and decline to about 696mt by 2025.
China Crude Steel Production was 779mt in 2013 and should be 820-830mt in 2014 and 850mt in 2015. It should peak in the mid-term of 13th Five-year Plan Period (2016-2020) in 2017 at approximately 870mt before declining to 850mt by 2020 and 800mt by 2025. Note that RIO and BHP have a longer term growth rate that takes crude steel production above 1,000mtpa.
The most recent World Steel Association data gives 821mtpa for September for China but this should slow seasonally ahead of the 2015 Spring Festival to give the 820-830mt for 2014.
To achieve this crude steel production rate, iron ore imports have been surging and are up about 15% YTD and have exceeded 1,000mtpa on a monthly basis. The full year should be about 10% higher than in 2013. Domestic magnetite concentrate production should decline by as much as 140mtpa by 2018 such that total imports should exceed 1,150mtpa basis 62%Fe and with lower grade iron ores around 58% Fe this figure should exceed 1,200mtpa.
Source: China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
I continue to be amazed at the incessant calls for crude steel production in China to decline sharply and to hear that demand for raw materials into China is slowing. 15%pa growth in 2014 after 10% in import growth in 2013 is a decline?
Nevertheless, the iron ore price has slipped below US$80/t causing hardship for high cost producers, especially those in China. This graphic suggests about 85% of China magnetite concentrate production is losing cash. Perhaps 30% is losing over US$40/t.
The steel mills do not appear to have yet rebuilt depleted inventories and port inventories are now declining and are at a 7 month low. Some of the ore accumulated for low cost financing and placed on these port stockpiles may have now been already sold off and might reduce the additional pressure on the market.
The major producers from BHP, RIO, FMG to Vale have been aggressively producing and selling ore to hurt the Chinese producers and to place pressure on potential new entrants. What is really interesting is the indications that iron ore production costs are coming down rapidly for these big players and should all be below US$60/t CFR basis 62%Fe.
US$80 should be an important level but Chinese steel mills inventory actions will have the final say by the end of the year.
US$ strength
The rise in the US$ against most currencies has been seen to be the main driver behind the decline in commodity prices and that the market place sees a strong US$ as deflationary. This is all very nice but look at these numbers. The CRB Index (basis CCI – graphic above) has been declining in US$ since highs in March Qtr 2011 but despite the strong US$ it is actually up for most currencies in 2014! CRB Index rebased to 100 for 2011 highs in each currency, with Dec 31 and current figures.| 2011 High |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
From high |
2014 |
|
| US$ |
100 |
82 |
80 |
74 |
70 |
-30.0% |
-5.1% |
| Euro |
100 |
88 |
85 |
75 |
78 |
-21.8% |
4.5% |
| Yen |
100 |
74 |
82 |
91 |
93 |
-7.2% |
1.7% |
| SF |
100 |
82 |
79 |
71 |
72 |
-27.6% |
2.7% |
| A$ |
100 |
81 |
78 |
84 |
81 |
-19.5% |
-3.6% |
While the US$ has been strong the Yen has not and the Yen makes up 13.6% of the USDX. The Euro makes up 57.6% of this US$ Index and a close look at the cross rates doesn't suggest the US$ is going a lot further from here although it might not fall back much for a while. The Yen is certainly going to be weaker but probably not many other currencies will.
A weaker Yen is also obvious from this graphic says the A$ should be very strong against the Yen.
Outflows of capital from Japan must be expected. The gold price in Yen is also looking quite strong.
US T Bonds - Surge then selloff
The remarkable surge in bond prices in mid October seemed to be a last gasp run and the decline since then still makes these bonds very vulnerable as global economic growth improves and deflationary risks recede. These bonds will also provide much of the capital that will join with cash to move into equities and commodities. The parallel of US TBonds with the US$ still needs to be considered. The US$ must follow its bond prices.Gold price hammered into an important low?
Gold and gold stocks have been a hard road to follow but I think the fundamental arguments for a strong gold price and much higher gold shares remain. Governments destroy currencies by spending too much and racking up debts. People who have lived through violent currency depreciation know the value of gold and the two biggest populations in India and China are showing this by buying as much gold as they can get their hands on. Central banks are buying gold again. Demand is stronger than mine and scrap supply so it can only be banks and hedge funds selling volume. How much do they have left? The evidence is clear that this uptrend has been broken. A fair technical target could be US$700/oz if you wanted to be bearish.
But this is also valid technical support with yet another market having three bounces along the support line.
And this graphic is back to crisis levels. Back below 2008 lows and back to 1986 levels. Extreme long term support here for the US Gold Index!
And to clutch at some other straws the sell off in the GDX ETF has been on massive volume and back to this pervasive and remarkable three point downtrend support line that we see in so many markets this year.
And when we look at gold shares against gold it suggests that this is the final selling and capitulation stage - or else gold is going to US$700 and most of the gold industry will close. 
This just screams that we must be near the end of the 42 month decline in gold shares.
I particularly like NST, MML and DRM here as low cost producers and GOR, ABU, KGD, BLK and CGN as developers.
Paradigm has opened an account with a bullion dealer which allows clients to invest directly into gold with delivery or to be held in storage. Talk to me about it if you are interested. Stocks to BUY
The major resources stocks BHP, RIO, FMG, WPL, STO, OSH are attractive opportunities and so many of the juniors are so cheap and very good value where currently funded.
The Dawes Points Outlook is for this market to run for many years to the upside so there will be many opportunities coming through.
For those seeking a general exposure to non resources stocks I can recommend the new A$50m IPO of CBG Capital LIC with a manager whose two funds have outperformed the ASX 200 reliably over the past 8 and 12 years respectively.
Good growth and a fully franked dividend yield of 5-6%pa. The minimum of A$16m has already been reached and the offer has a closing date of 20 November.
A flyer on this will be circulated this week, but please call me on +612-9222-9111 if you'd like to discuss this.
5 November 2014
Note that gold stocks in North America are still about just 30% of their `normal’ rating against the general market and are turning up again. Big % gains to come.
But the clearest signal is the economic data coming out of China.
The 7.5% pa GDP growth rate is being maintained and the various Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) are now all pointing up. Expect an acceleration from here. Overall, China never really slowed overall and never as much in most sectors as the commentators expected, as we saw through the crude steel production data. And the US had 4% growth for June Qtr!
My four visits to China from Sept last year gave no obvious indication of a real slowdown and in fact reinforced my views of an increasingly sophisticated and complex society so keen to improve living standards. And the infrastructure and technology standards are so high that Australia is not keeping up.
With economic expansion in China comes an increase in everything but particularly the demand for energy. In a slower 2013, BP Datashows energy demand only grew 4.4% and took China to 23% of total global energy consumption and 25% higher than the US.
Importantly, gas consumption in China increased 10.6% in 2013 but it is still only 5.1% of total energy consumption in China whereas the total global average is 23.7%. Coal is still around 68% in China and 30% globally. The demand for gas in China has so far to go from this 5.1% to at least 20% to get anywhere near the world's 24% and 30% in the US. This graphic tells us a lot about the economies of China and the USA and the changes since 2006.
Focus on the gas numbers because China will be a major importer of gas via pipeline from Iran and from Russia and can be also expected to greatly increase LNG imports as well as develop its own shale gas resources. China needs to increase gas share from 5 to at least 20% in a growing energy consumption profile over the next 20 years.
See how the US has increased gas by 25% to a level of 30% from just 24% in 2006 and reduced its coal consumption by 20% from 24% to 20%. All from that shameful fraccing!! So much more garbage from the Greens.
Now just look at the markets.
My last visit to China provided strong signals that share ownership in China is not highly regarded. It seems much money was lost after 2007 with a steep index fall of 70%, a rally, then a grinding 45% decline over five years and a retreat to the levels of 2001. No one owns shares anymore. Its all in property and shadow banking high interest loans. Unfortunately the property developers can't quite make the payments on the 25-35% loans so the cash will likely go elsewhere. Shares maybe?
The markets are showing that the bearishness is now turning.
The US$15,600bn market cap Shanghai SEC Index is up 13% in the past year and is on a PER of 10.1x.
The 2007 downtrend is broken after the Index bounced off the 22 year uptrend.
This FTSE China 25 Index ETF is also pushing against the 2011 highs which are also post 2008 highs.
China had been holding back Australia but we are now leading Shanghai and with the break through 5500 the All Ords will now try to catch up the world.
These improvements have been anticipated by some of the better opportunities in the market and are reflected in the 30 stocks Dawes Points Nov 2013 Non-trading Portfolio which is now up 64% since the beginning of 2014. Big gains by LNG (4% of initial book value), LMB (0.8% ibv), AQA(4.3% ibv) and WSA(4.3%ibv) have helped significantly.
Here is the portfolio. Big caps have finally started to move but stock picking in the smaller end has produced stellar results. Much more to come.
Now one of the things that has been embedded in my brain since entering the financial markets is that the market in Australia can only go where the market leader goes. And this is BHP.
So if the market leader is not going higher then the market will find it difficult to move higher.
We all have been bombarded by the iron ore bears who equate the iron ore price with the future of the Western and Eastern Worlds. It affects BHP of course and RIO and then we have the numerous experts who have shorted FMG.
But the operational and production responses and the market action of BHP are not of the character of a company, and hence a market, going nowhere.
Note this extraordinary comment from a local fund manager who told Reuters:-
"At the end of the day, BHP's fortunes are tied to the iron-ore market," said ………., chief investment officer at ………. Asset Management, which recently sold its shares in the miner after holding the stock for close to 15 years.
"The stated strategy of the majors is to squeeze higher cost production out of the market," he said. "We're just not sure that maximizing production is as sensible as they think it is."
So he is sold out. Yet the stock is at 12 month highs so something else is happening.
This is the `Generals and the Maginot Line’ concept referred to in the February Dawes Points.
If the market for BHP is holding up and the iron ore price isn't that bad maybe this something else is happening. How about the something else being copper?
Copper prices have broken the 2011 downtrend and LME inventories are just 144kt for a 21mtpa market and are at 6 year lows.
The Dark Side has tried to tell us that the inventory has just been moved from LME warehouses to others in China and that financing of this inventory will bring us all unstuck. Garbage!
BHP will produce a net 1.8mt of copper in FY15 and at US$7000/t this is US$12.6bn in gross revenue. At US$7700/t this is US$1.26bn more. Escondida and Olympic Dam, each growing.
Now to another something else.
The 2011 acquisition of Petrohawk's Eagle-Ford and Permian oil and gas acreage and Chesapeake Energy's gas at Haynesville by BHP was derided by the cognescenti at the time as an over-priced and strategically dumb acquisition. Gas prices fell after the acquisition so it was a big joke with writedowns on Cheaspeake's Haynesville assets. Another Magma Copper. HBI. Ravensthorpe. Failure.
But wait a moment.
Look at these numbers for gas which show a doubling for BHPP since the acquisition.
BHPP has advised a 17mmbbl liquids increase for FY15 and it had spent US$3.9bn in FY14 to achieve this. So taking a steady growth of +2.5mmbbloe per qtr growth rate to give just 15mmbbloe extra in FY15 then the June Qtr FY15 could be producing at a rate of over 60mmbbloepa (170,000bbloepd). What will FY16 look like? Can't really know today but BHPP has said 200,000bblpd by 2016(>70mmbblpa) so expect higher numbers in FY16.
What may be known is that BHPP is probably getting one year IRRs of over 70% and 60mmbloe pa gives annual revenue of US$6,000m and at a conservative 50% EBITDA margin this adds a lot to BHPP's earnings. Like about US$2bn in FY15 and US$3bn in FY16.
The technology changes in drilling are bringing down drilling costs, improving reservoir recoveries and boosting returns. BHPP `is testing high-temperature gels for better proppant transportation, different stage spacing to maximize stimulated rock volume, and reservoir modeling to simulate stress capture and optimize well sequencing.' (UOGR April 2014) BHP also reported that field trials achieving are 10-40% higher than production for comparable surrounding wells.
The rapid technology changes in unconventional oil production (now really a `manufacturing’ business rather than exploration) are suggesting increases in oil recovery from about 3% to as much as 6%, with about 50% recoverable in Year 1. Getting 400,000bbls @US$100/bbl in Year 1 is US$40m revenue with $8m op costs for a US$10m well is over 100% Year 1 IRR. Try 150%. And BHP is spending US$4bnpa. The above BHP numbers might be low.
So here are two major Divisions of BHP in cashflow growth mode that will offset any earnings weakness from any lower prices there in iron ore with its 10% higher FY15 225mtpa output, costs reduction and revenue of US$20bn.
It seems that the world has just focussed on BHP's iron ore and ignored Copper and Oil. BHP's share of All Ords market turnover has been at the lowest level for over 10 years suggesting it is very much underowned. Turnover in recent weeks has jumped up sharply suggesting BHP will again lead the market higher.
Other markets are giving BHP a better ranking so have a look at BHP in US$. More action than in Australia, possibly.
The raison d’etre for the establishment of DawesPoints in 2012 was to advise clients and the world in general that the real economy was operating at very different level to the financial economy. And that the real economy was doing far better than the financial community has been giving credit for.
The continual reference to the US markets has been a core activity of DawesPoints because these are far more liquid markets with vast numbers of buyers and sellers with different goals, views, responsibilities, time frames and of course attitudes. The Australia market appears to me to be concentrated with strong convergent groupthink views and guided by a generation of advisors investors with contrasting time frames compared to the real economies' requirements. Risk averse commentators driving investors away from equities and to overweight positions in bonds and cash.
The Australian investment market of course has had the luxury of being able to invest in a vast number of overseas markets with stocks such as Apple, Google and Tesla not available in the local market. So rightly competition for capital is substantial. However, it is a pity bank deposits have won this section of the race with their A$1,606bn balance.
How is it that our Australia prefers to back the banks and mediocrity or overseas companies rather than backing its citizens in their visions and endeavours? Why would you back XYZ Bank Ltd to invest in 4.8% mortgages rather than to invest in Ken Everyman who has uncommon drive and a great idea about how to produce and sell a better front door lock? What about Dr Phil Brown and his biotech innovation in a field that Australia is an acknowledged leader (did you know that the local George Institute is THE leading medical research unit of the world!!). Why indeed would you not invest in Bill Brilliant who has a copper deposit that he has assessed as worthy of further development? Or John with his iron ore opportunity? Or Frank with the acquisition of a major exploration target from large international mining company for whom the target no longer met corporate goals. Real ideas, real drive and real assets from real people.
Australia does have the world’s largest listed mining company in BHP and a range of other and its banks are world class with all the big 4 with AA ratings
The scope of this is vast and extraordinary. From gold to iron ore from new mining technologies to unconventional oil and gas. Opportunities everywhere.
And yet still the large investment banks are still vying for the title of the most bearish. How many of them have even been beyond Hong Kong into China. Not many, it would seem.
And the fixation with a lower iron ore price and the collapse in the steel industry in China as it goes to yet another new record high (yes, new record of 843mtpa in June!!). Oh, puulease.
So what is really happening now? The Bear Case of overwhelming debt leading to a US Depression with European banking collapse and China falling over has very simply failed to eventuate. You can say QE and other injections of liquidity have prevented the collapse and that unless we get more then it will still happen. Maybe.
The much proclaimed collapse in commodities hasn’t arrived yet and apart from the ridiculous preoccupation with the iron ore price it appears it won’t.
What is going to happen to these people who have been preaching Armageddon and worse? And to those who have listened?
I saw some `unverifiable’ data from a US columnist that showed that ten major global economies (including US, UK and Australia) had current savings rates in excess of 40%. No wonder global growth has been slightly anaemic.
But what does A$1,606bn in bank deposits suggest to you? How could Treasury, most banks, the disgraceful `asset allocators', a growing army of risk averse financial planners and scared ordinary people with the conventional wisdom of Cash is King be on the right side of the market? A thirty year bull market in bonds has certainly sucked in everyone, especially governments who think that the markets will always be there to take over priced paper.
But note that the tide has already turned with major US bond funds reporting a full year of redemptions as the risk of holding low yield, balance sheet-challenged government paper just keeps growing.
And here, the latest RBA data shows that although total bank deposits are still rising ( up 0.7% to a new record A$1,606bn) in June the Term Deposits category had the biggest ever monthly fall (A$7.9bn) to just A$529bn and at -1.5%, the largest % fall since deposits began to rise sharply in 2007.
Funds flowing from bonds and term deposits is now well underway. Into investments, property and soon into retail consumption. For us that is into equities and commodities and into resources equities (read small cap resources stocks!).
Well if you are reading these DawesPoints you know these have been my views and you have had it consistently straight and true.
Bull market for resources and commodities.
And these views haven't changed in the past two years.
Now some more facts for you to consider.
Resources sector bottomed in the GFC in Nov 2008 and the broad markets Dow, S&P, All Ords, FTSE and DAX bottomed almost 4 months later in Mar Qtr 2009.
Say that again. The Resource Sector (XMM.ASX) bottomed in Dec Qtr 2008 and the broader market bottomed in March 2009.
So technically we have been in a bull market uptrend in resources for almost six years now! Hasn’t felt like it has it?
The resources market rallied into April 2011 then weakened into June 2013 for the first major pull back. A 53% fall was some pullback. Ouch.
And 71% for Small Resources was ,.. er,..er,.. um,.. some pull back. But it is bottoming!
The poor old gold sector after making a magnificent 230% rally from the GFC into 2011 then fell 80.0% to Dec 2013. Mere details! And of course the small caps became microcaps and then nanocaps and worse. Quite few 95% falls here. More than OUCH.
All these share price collapses for no real macro economic reason. Just misinformation, groupthink and fear.
But what value has been created!!
And strong stock and portfolio performances in 2014 reflect that. So much more to come.
I have referred to the `stealth’ bull market in Australian oil and gas exploration that is well underway now. The new LNG projects in Australia will be export conduits for many new gas fields in Australia and will change the entire industry.
I particularly like the key Cooper Basin stocks (BPT, DLS and SXY) and also those in the NT and parts of WA. Hopefully a full report might be available very soon. The implications are very great and the opportunities will be very rewarding.
There are hundreds of companies with quality projects that need to be financed and I am happy to recommend dozens of them. This is going to be an extraordinary Bull Market for the next decade!
So the opportunities in Australia now start with our preferred leaders.
BHP and FMG (SUPER stocks) with WPL, OSH, STO, WSA, ORG as leaders.
Onshore oil and gas led by BPT, DLS, SXY in the Cooper Basin and then AJQ, CTP and REY.
Gold stocks NCM, NST, ABU, GOR, SLR, SAR, BLK
Copper stocks CDU, PNA
Industrial metals TRO, AMI, IBG,
Technology metals ORE, ALK, LMB, VXL, KNL, CNQ
Metals explorers SIR, CZI, KGL,
Many more as this market moves up, as we discover new opportunities and as relative values warrant switches.
So what happens now for the supporters of the Dark Side?
This is a very important question.
If the end of the world hasn’t happened by now what might be the options for them?
Source: ASPO
This means these fields need to produce 6% more each year to offset the declines before seeing production growth. Costs are also rising per recovered barrel and many of the sweet spots seem to have been already discovered. No panacea here for long term US oil supply from these fields. The US will remain a net importer of oil.
No drama on the oil price itself, just coming back to support on both the downtrend and uptrend lines. This is often a very typical technical feature pullback to support and should be the base for another advance. Recall that US Exploration and Production stocks recently made new all-time highs and did so with little fanfare.
You should then look at Copper with the Freeport price powering on. A pullback is possible but bears don't have shares. Freeport is leading copper. Copper technicals are looking encouraging and LME inventories are 32% lower than the peaks in June and are just 462kt against 20mtpa consumption.
But the bigger picture is that many large cap basic materials stocks in the US are having strong performances from extended periods of low prices. Alcoa has been mentioned previously but have a look at US Steel and Cliffs Resources.
US Steel. What can you say? Already up 71% from its June low. Cliffs is a little less exciting but the downtrends are being broken everywhere.
Whilst we haven't got the indices moving all that much, individual stocks have done well. Have a look at these in order of size.